https://rkarora.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/nifty-hit-its-3rd-resistance-also-all-gods-grace/ last year pre-budget commentary.
This year its not important what Fiscal Deficit will be. total focus will be on how much Government is ready to spend to revive economy and economic activities. if will be more subsidies or wave off of loans etc will dent in sentiments. on the other hand, if expenditure are announce in infrastructure on big tickets like bullet train/ Dams etc. and on the other hand roads in rural areas, more ware housing facilities, initiative on alternate energy plants, more educational institutes (schools, colleges, IIM, IIT etc.), more push to provide cheaper loans and knowledge part to start-ups, standing strongly to MIP, custom duties to boast domestic manufacturing industry. when interest rates are on downward trend, different ways to attract foreign investments. Fiscal deficit is maintained to last year level 3.8 can also sound good if expenditure on infrastructure are huge. Corporate tax, as promised last year to reduced in phased manner is also to watch closely. Long term tax on equity should not be touched as Government is making good amount on STT & CTT. Push should be to promote investor to invest in good amount to stocks for longer term through ULIP (Insurance & Mutual Funds). Government need to give signal to business community that they are not against Rich. Outcome of election results of 5 states also key driver after the budget. Means we will witness good amount of volatility in at least first 3 months.
8511 IS TREND DECIDER SUPPORTS ARE 8330 – 8282 – 7920 – 7646 – 7452 RESISTANCE ARE 8646 – 8990 – 9073 – 9265
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Crude may rally after Feb 2019 to June 2019 and sharp fall can be seen in 2020 beginning // Gold last quarter of 2019 may trigger up move Sharp sell may emerge @ Feb 2020.
Its a guess work based on historic data. It may, may not happen this time.
At same time Stocks may form Low? If both asset class have inverse relation