Archive for June, 2008

30
Jun
08

july 01st

Nifty watch:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

3933.75

3987.10

4075.05

4128.40

4216.35

We are very close to our target of 3977, 2nd rsi has come down to 20 ( 5 days ) again, means NIFTY is oversold and possibility of short covering is there, one can cover short positions near to above mentioned level. Stop loss to short positions is 4325. NIFTY may touch 4187 or 4257 levels in short covering. Trend decider of the day is 4076. USA first indication of covering. U.S. stocks gained, limiting the market’s worst monthly decline in almost six years, after analysts raised earnings estimates for energy companies and a gauge of business spending topped economists’ forecasts. Crude is also trading in the range of  $144 and $131. today it touched resistance before cooling. “We should expect to get a little bounce here,” John Kattar, the Boston-based chief investment officer at Eastern Investment Advisors, which manages about $2 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “When sentiment gets this one- sided on the negative side, you get good buying opportunities in the market.” . GOLD IS CORRECTING DOWNWARD. Back to Home , The Left parties on Monday said they were now discussing the timing of withdrawing support to the UPA government as they feel it was determined to go ahead with the INDO-US nuclear deal, an indication of which is the Prime Minister’s trip to G-8.The four Left parties are in discussions among themselves on when to withdraw support to the Congress-led coalition and a decision is likely to be taken at their meeting. In net shell market may move both ways today.

 

 

High

Low

Close

Last

4163.00

4021.70

4040.55

 

 

 

 

Weekly

4351.15

4093.20

4136.65

52 week

6388.30

4002.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you remember that we were at 6388.3 , just 6 months back and today at 4000. everyone was buyer at that time. Buying momentum,  but not growth. Those who all invested heavily (very high % of savings or used leverages ), I have doubts whether they all were ready to absorb or digest the dents  so always remember NO FASTING NO FEASTING.

 

 

 

Trading calls:-

 

IDBI:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

60.35

62.30

65.65

67.60

70.95

 

BUY FOR SHARP RECOVERY , S.L 60/- TARGET 69 – 71 – 74 – 76

 

 

 

LEARNING LIFE:- 

WHAT IS HAPPINESS, EXCEPT THE SIMPLE HARMONY BETWEEN A MON AND THE LIFE HE LEADS?  – ALBERT CAMUS

PRAYER OF THE DAY

Higher Power! Help me remember that the best harmony comes, when I sing from your book of wisdom.

 

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

29
Jun
08

nifty watch

last day of june, 2008.

Nifty watch:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

3994.25

4065.40

4190.35

4261.50

4386.45

 

we advised last week, to short at higher levels with stop loss of 4378 (CURRENT S.L IS 4325/-) with target of 3978. when we are very close to our target, we have to be watchful at mentioned target, whether it hold good as a support or not. Short positions can be covered once. If break , than next possible long term support is at 3568. if fundamentals start improving (cooling of inflation , crude and cong-left talk on n-deal ), than 3978 can work as a good support. Between above mentioned 2 levels one can consider buying value stocks. Bear markets have always been temporary. So are the bull markets. But one caution is doing not take-leveraged positions. Buy only the way we park our money in banks fix-deposit. None knows that how long the consolidation period will be,( after bears are exhausted. ) total build up in NIFTY 400 PA is more than 30 lac shares, indicates that nifty can test level of below 4000.   trend decider of the day is 4191.

 

Trading calls:-

 

Jet airways:-

 

  S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

470.25

480.50

495.25

505.50

520.25

 

Sell at rally with s.l of rs.521/- target 480/- and 470/-

 

niit :-

 

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

92.95

100.90

105.45

113.40

117.95

Buy with s.l  105/- target  rs.  113  and 118.

 

Ndtv :-

 

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

396.80

404.60

414.80

422.60

432.80

 Buy with s.l of 402/- target 432.

 

Essar oil :-

 

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

190.20

194.50

201.45

205.80

212.70

Sell with s.l of rs.208/- target   190/- 

 

Chambal fert :-

 

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

70.65

72.70

76.35

78.35

82.00

 

Buy at decline between 70 to 72 with target of 79  and 84/-

 

Learning life :-

 

SERENITY & SATISFACTION COME, NOT WHEN WE ACHIEVE SOME MEASURE OF PRECARIOUS TEMPORARY CONTROL, BUT WHEN WE LEARN TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. THEY COME WHEN WE LEARN THE ART OF RESPONDING TO CHANGE AND ACCOMMODATING THE EVER – SHIFTING CIRCUMSTANCES OF OUR LIVES.

 

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

Only 2 hours left : enjoy socccccccer euro 2008 final

Spain vs Germany

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

29
Jun
08

EURO-08: SOCCER FINAL : SPAIN VS GERMANY

Euro – 08  FINAL : SPAIN VS GERMANY

—————————————————————————————————–

 

TODAY , after 7 hours , whole world will watch most thrilling action packed grand show game of soccer             .

——————————————————————————————————

 An injury to Germany captain Michael Ballack threatened to rob the Euro 2008 final of one its most exciting players on Saturday, its 2nd time germans are in final and Ballack is not participating . “Our medical team will be working with him round the clock but we have to think seriously about alternatives,” Germany coach Joachim Loew told a news conference.

Ballack play or not. Its going to be worth watching , biggest flight on this planet irrespective of the outcome.

Good luck to both teams :  SPAIN AND GERMANY

 

28
Jun
08

OPTIONS (DERIVATIVES)

STOCK INVESTING IS SOCIAL WORK

 

When people are desperately trying to sell, HELP them and BUY.

 

When people are enthusiastically trying to buy, HELP them and SELL.

 

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on

 

 optimism and die on euphoria.”- FRANKLIN TEMPLETON.

 

Only uncertainty is certain: bear markets have always been temporary. So are the bull markets. If a particular industry sector becomes popular with investors, that popularity will prove always temporary and, when lost, may not return for years – FT 

 

LESSON NO.2:   OPTIONS (DERIVATIVES)

 

OPTIONS 

      It costs nothing to enter into a forward or futures contact, there is a cost to enter into an option contact.(hence understand before entering into any option contract)

      It should be emphasized that an option gives the holder the right to do something. The holder does not have to exercise this right.

 

Types of Options

      CALL option: a call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

      PUT option: a put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

The price in the the contract is known as the exercise

 or strike price, the date is known as expiration date

OPTION Positions

      There are 2 sides to every option contract.

      On one side is the investor who has taken the long position(i.e.,has bought the option)

      On other side is the investor who has taken a short position(i.e.,has sold or written the option).The writer of an option receives cash up front but has potential liabilities later.her profit or loss is the reverse of that of the purchaser of the option.

Types of traders of derivatives

      Hedgers : use derivatives to reduce or eliminate this risk.

      Speculators : wish to bet on future movements. They use derivatives to get extra leverage.

      Arbitrageurs : are in business to take advantage of a discrepancy between prices in two different markets.

Factors affecting OPTION prices

      The current stock price

      The strike price

      The time to expiration

      The volatility of the stock price

      The risk free interest rate

      The dividends expected during the life of the option.

Relationship of all affecting factors

      The value of call generally increases as the current stock price,the time of expiration,the volatility,and the risk free interest rate increases.The value of the a call decreases as the strike price and expected dividends increase.

      The value of a put generally increases as the strike price,the time to expiration,the volatility,and the expected dividends increase. The value of put decreases as the current stock price and the risk free interest rate increase.  

Put-Call parity

             Put-call parity is a relationship between the price, c, of a European call option on a stock and the the price, p, of a European put option on a stock. For a non-dividend paying stock, it is:-

                       -r(T-t)

            c+Xe          = p + s

Trading strategies involving OPTIONS

      Plain VANILA & Standard options

      Complex or Nonstandard derivatives or exotic options or just exotics.

In recent  years, banks and other financial institutions have been very imaginative in designing exotics to meet the needs of clients (tailor made)

Covered call & Protective put

Covered call : buying the stock and selling a call option on stock.

Its similar to selling a put option.

Protective put : buying a put option and buying the stock.

Its similar to buying a call option.

SPREADS………………

      BULL Spread: buying a call (put) with a low strike price and selling a call (put) with a higher strike price.

      Bear spread: buying a call (put) with a high strike price and selling a call (put) with a low strike price.

Bull/bear spread limits both the investor`s upside potential and her downward risk.

SPREADS……………….

      BUTTERFLY Spread: buying calls (puts) with a low and high strike price and selling two calls (puts) with some intermediate strike price.

Its appropriate strategy for an investor who feel that large stock price moves are unlikely. It require a small investment initially. Gives rise to small loss if there is a significant stock price move in either direction.   

Spreads……………

             Calendar spread: can be created by selling a call option with a certain strike price and buying a longer maturity call option with the same strike price.

Its created when direction is not known (arbitrage  position).there can be many types of calendar spread:-

             Neutral calendar spread

             Bullish/bearish calendar spread

             Reverse calendar spread etc………

Spreads……………..

     Diagonal spread : is a spread which is such that both the expiration date and the strike price of the calls are different.

its combination of  bear, bull and calendar spreads. There are several different types of diagonal spreads.

Combinations…………..

             A combination is an option trading strategy that involve taking a position in both calls and puts on the same stock. Known as…

             Straddles

             Strips

             Straps

             Strangles etc………

Straddle

      Buying a call and put with same strike price and expiration date. Its appropriate when investor is expecting a large move in a stock price but does not know in which direction.

      A top straddle or straddle write is the reverse position.its created by selling a call and put of same strike price and same expiration. If the stock price on the expiration date is close to strike rate ,it leads to a significant profit.

Strips & Straps

     A strip consist of a long position in a call and two puts with the same strike price and expiration date.

     A strap consist of a long position in a put and two calls with the same strike price and expiration date.

Strangle

      In a strangle ,sometimes called a bottom vertical combination, an investor buy a put and a call with the same expiration date and different strike price.

      The sale of a strangle is sometimes referred to as a top combination.it can be appropriate for an investor who feels that large stock price moves are unlikely.

A of a to z

      This presentation has explained just a few of the ways in which options can be used to produce an interesting relationships. Its just A of A TO Z of option strategies.

      It’s a vast field.most exotic options trade in the otc mkt.,and are designed by financial institutions to meet the requirement of their clients:—————————-

Exotic options

      Nonstandard American Options

      Forward Start Options

      Compound Options

      Barrier Options

      Binary Options

      Lockback Options

      Asian Options

      Options to exchange One Asset to Another

      Options involving Several Assets

Many Ways

      There are many other ways in which options can be used to produce interesting payoffs. Its not surprising that option trading has steadily increased in popularity and continues to fascinate investors.

26
Jun
08

friday, 2008 june 27th

Nifty watch:-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

4195.45

4255.65

4290.20

4350.40

4384.95

 

For the last 3 days its been advised that don’t short at lower levels. Market is over sold, there is possibility of rally. 2nd advice was to short at higher levels with stop loss of 4378. market closed at just at 5 days moving average 4315.its just mathematics only. same was mentioned all moving averages are levels in itself. All July futures were at heavy discount showing weakness of the market, advise to sell only to cover at lower levels. Same is reflected at u.s. stocks. They tumbled on outlook for consumer companies and banks 2nd on earning concerns also of big corporate like GM and CITIgroup. “Most investors are going to sit on the sidelines until they’re more certain the sharks have left the waters and it’s safe to go back in,” said Bruce McCain, the Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank. Goldman cut rating of GM, its earning concern. Back at home,beating the inflation blues is the story of rising millionaires. The India growth story just got better…India has emerged as the home to fastest growing millionaire population. Millionaires in India grew by a record 23,000 in 2007,about 1,23,000 at the end of 2007, up from 100,015 a year ago. Direct tax numbers are up by more than 42% by now. Hope we will be able to maintain the pace.

Trading calls:-

 

 

RPL:-

Fibonacci price projections

 

0%

61.8%

100%

161.8%

261.8%

Up

159

177

188

206

235

Dn

188

170

159

141

112

BUY AT DECLINE with stop loss of 158/- , target : 177 – 188.

Time frame : 3-6 months

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

168.85

171.45

173.10

175.70

177.35

Stop loss is 168/-

 

Yes bank:-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

125.65

128.50

131.75

134.60

137.85

Short on rally with stop loss of rs.139/- target 125/- and 117/-

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

26
Jun
08

predict and WIN

Predict the NIFTY clearing ending 2008, july 31st  by

 

July 30th 12 noon and

 

win Rs.1000/-

 

Send entries by clicking comment

Best closest predicted entry will get the winning amount  . if there are more than 1 winners, amount will be divided equally. Decision of the management will be final and no participant will have right to challenge it. There is no entry fees.

 

25
Jun
08

thursday, 2008, june 26th

Nifty watch:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2

S 1

Pivot

R 1

R 2

4032.05

4142.30

4203.45

4313.70

4374.80

Trading strategy: short on intra day rally with s.l of rs.4378/-

Moving averages (simple):

5 D

8 D

13 D

20 D

39 D

50 D

200 D

4312

4421

4454

4548

4795

4840

5235

 

All above mentioned moving averages are levels in itself. Trend will change only

When market will close above 20 days moving average.

 

 

Congress will go ahead with N-deal: Moily

June 25, 2008 23:01 IST

Even as Left parties stuck to their firm opposition to Indo-US nuclear deal, the Congress on  Wednesday struck an aggressive posture, saying it was going ahead with the agreement with the timing of its choice.

“We are going ahead with the deal. That is very clear. And the timing is ours. We will choose our own time,” senior Congress leader Veerappa Moily told NDTV. Impact is very much clear.

Fed funds unchanged at 2.00%:

 

downside risks to growth remains

Fin. Markets are still under stress.

Uncertainty over inflation.

Economic activities are expanding

Oil declines after US inventories climb, 1st time in six weeks

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 




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