NIFTY WATCH & TECHNICAL CALLS

Nifty watch :- August 01^st 2008

 

 

Intra day support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4259.70	4296.25	4319.15	4355.70	4378.55

Thanks for the response to PRIDICT & WIN.

 

Trend decider : 4296

Resistance : 4329 –4358

Support : 4148 – 4196

Stop loss to all short positions : 4540 ( on

closing basis)

Interest rates are up                                                                        

inflation numbers are up                                                                     

lowering our estimates for GDP growth                                  

squeezed corporate profits                                                              

rise in return on risk free investments                                                    

average monsoon                                                                            

In such a circumstances, to raise the return on equity ,

companies need to do at least one of the following ,says

Buffett : 1) increase turnover (ration between sales and total

assets employed in the business) . its volume game baby. 2.

cheaper leverage (marginal profits must be higher than

marginal cost) 3. more leverage ( he is talking of business ,

not  a leveraged a/c in stock market) 4. lower income tax (its

better not to comment) and wider operating margins on

sales.  Its very much correct , if any company succeed to

incorporate any idea out of above mentioned 5 way outs, is

going to produce better returns than any other investment .

this is the time to be selective and stock specific to beat

inflation numbers. 2^nd days will not remain the same. Any

big fall should be utilised to invest in small quantity

carefully and selectively. In our moral portfolio we  have

added LT and sold Ntpc, which we purchased around

rs.155/-, few days back.

I will like to thanks to all those investors, who participated

in Game : Predict & Win . we have received app. 100 entries

(more than 70 are today itself) and  thousands of investors

visited the site. thanks for overwhelming response . Winner

of the contest will be announced on Monday. It was a

transparent game, where every contestant can excess to all

entries received with in this month. Best part is many

investors have started contributing their thoughts/ideas,

technical calls ,response to write ups and investment ideas

etc. This site belongs to whole investor community and

success of this site is their success only. I promise that august

contest will have higher winning amount.  

 

Earlier we received best response to our post :            Options (Derivatives)    

 

DOW WATCH :-

Its mathematics only. Dow has resistance @11500-700, which may hold for some more time. SUPPORT comes @11150. crude is very much in range explained on daily basis.

TECHNICAL calls :-=

GE SHIPPING :-

Intra day support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
384.60	396.20	413.10	424.70	441.60

SELL WITH S.L OF 440/- TARGET 397-388-371

TREND DECIDER : 414.

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

 

 

 

Timings extended to 3 p.m, today, to participate

Contest : PREDICT & WIN is sponsored by:-

 

ARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS

 

Match Your Dreams * With Our Vision

 

A fastest growing broking house

predict & win

Predict the NIFTY clearing ending 2008, july 31^st  by

 

July 31st , 12 noon and

 

win Rs.1000/-

 

Send entries by clicking comment

Best closest predicted entry will get the winning amount  . if there are more than 1 winners, amount will be divided equally. Decision of the management will be final and no participant will have right to challenge it. There is no entry fees.

 

nifty watch & technical calls

Nifty watch :- july 31^st 2008

Intra day support & resistance:

S 1	S 2	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4260.75	4208.05	4293.90	4346.55	4379.70

Major support is between  4125-4170 &

resistance is between 1^st :4372 – 2^nd : 4539

Trend decider is 4316

DOW WATCH :-

Day before Yesterday we asked :-Will dow take support @11150/-? yesterday answer was very loud …..yes….its just mathematics only. Now, dow has resistance @11500-700, which may hold for some more time.

 Sell was given @4539/- NIFTY with target of 3790 as per fibonacci lelels. it took support @ 4160 and bounced back sharply to  its resistance of 4316. let’s see if it hold good or not. Crude has good support @$120, as it had good resistance @$145. we were very much sure that it will correct from there when every one was saying it will cross $170-$200. now its very much in range of $120-122 to $ 127-131. in India, macro scene is not that attractive after announcement of credit policy yesterday but only plus point is that valuations are attractive discounting year 2009. valuations become attractive below 4000, where we loudly advised to invest.

TECHNICAL calls :-=

MLL :-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
83.85	86.65	91.55	94.35	99.25

SELL WITH S.L 94/- TARGET 86.5 – 84 – 78

PUNJL :-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
237.40	254.45	264.40	281.45	291.40

BUY WITH S.L 245/- TARGET 280 –290 –335

IDBI :-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
73.85	75.00	75.85	76.95	77.80

SELL S.L 78 TARGET 75 – 72 – 70

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

 

 

 

nifty watch

Nifty watch :- july 30^th 2008

 Intra-day support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4089.70	4139.70	4209.40	4259.40	4329.05

 Major support is 4116-4150(20-13 days moving average). Resistance will be 4280 and 4350. market will remain volatile only. 4389 is stop loss to all short positions. RBI Governor did not leave any stone unturned to ..?.. the stock market or ..?.. inflation. There could be many other way outs:- import of grain and other eatables from countries like Australia to tame inflation (increase the supply at better rates) and keeping  money market more liquid to produce export oriented product at better competitive rates to generate forex . But its easy to express views. RBI Governor must have worked out all other alternates before taking decision to increase repo rate and crr. Let’s hope that these monitory steps will show its impact on inflation numbers without denting much to growth. This is the time when market have already reacted a lot. So chances are that market, inflation and growth will manage to show some favourable signs in future.  

Yesterday we asked :-Will dow take support @11150/-? Today answer is very loud …..yes….its just mathematics only.

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

 

 

 

terrorist attack

 

Terrorist attack : mangled remains of a

 

 bus, cycles, motorcycles and an

 

autorickshaw, were seen at the blast sites

 

which were splattered with blood. Panic

 

spread as people ran for their lives, almost

 

leading to a stampede in the areas ripped by

 

the blast.  Is only government responsible?

 

This is the time when every citizen must

 

shoulder his/er responsibility to fight back.

 

when every Indian will wake up and remain

 

alert like a guard . when every civilian will

 

become soldier, none can dare to perform

 

such a coward act. 1^st step is very simple :Be

 

watchful, what’s happening around you, 2^nd

 

step is inform the concern authority (must

 

have mobile #s of local authorities saved in

 

our mobiles), the minute we find any

 

auspicious article or unreasonable

 

behaviour of someone. For more and more

 

participation , small groups of societies

 

should be organised. These groups will be

 

morally responsible to guard  with in 1 km

 

of radius . bomb blasts are awakening call.

 

If we will not listen now, tomorrow we may

 

not get any chance . come on its our

 

responsibility to save our self with our own

 

efforts.   -  R.K.Arora an Indian 

 

    Will dow take support @11150/-? U.S. stocks fell, led by financial companies, after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump. Citigroup inc. and Bank of America Corp. led banks to a third straight decline as the IMF warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown. “We’re relatively bearish on financials because even when we get this crisis sorted out, the rebound is going to be muted,” said Ralph Shive, chief investment officer of 1st Source Corp. Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana, which manages $3 billion. “Everyone wants to declare the crisis over, but it’s going to take a long time to dig out of this hole.” Source : Bloomberg 2^nd concern is crude : Tensions in the oil-rich countries of Nigeria, Iran cause supply concerns that overshadow slumping demand for oil, retail gas.

 

 Credit policy :-  India’s central bank may raise interest rates for the third time in less than two months to combat inflation running at a 13-year high. The Reserve Bank of India will increase the benchmark repurchase  rate to 8.75 percent from 8.5 percent, according to 16 of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The bank, which will release its quarterly monetary policy tomorrow at noon in Mumbai, will also raise the cash reserve ratio to 9 percent from 8.75 percent, 10 of 21 economists said. Governor Y.V.Reddy, whose term at the Reserve Bank ends in September, is intensifying efforts to cool inflation that has accelerated to more than double his goal. Prime Minister Mr. singh, fresh from winning last week’s confidence vote, is looking to Reddy to spearhead the fight against rising prices as he prepares for elections before May. Source : bloomberg

 

Intra day calls:-

 

Ranbaxy : Shares of Ranbaxy Laboratories gained over 3 per cent after the pharmaceutical major announced the launch of a generic version of an ulcer pill Prilosec in the United States under an agreement with AstraZeneca.

 

Crain : Tensions in the oil-rich countries of Nigeria, Iran cause supply concerns that overshadow slumping demand for oil, retail gas.

 

Crompton gr: Electrical equipment manufacturer Crompton Greaves on Wednesday announced a consolidated net profit of Rs 122.61 crore for the quarter ended June 30, a 36.38 per cent increase over the previous year quarter.

The company had net profit of Rs 89.9 crore in the first quarter of FY’08, said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange. The total income of the company rose to Rs 2,051.87 crore in the latest quarter, from Rs 1,554.88 crore in the same period last year .

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nifty watch : inflation eased by 0.02 %

Nifty watch:-  25.07.2008

Its mathematics only :-Yesterday it was written “Nifty closed @4476.80(major resistance) for short term and 5 days rsi has reached to 83(means over bought), hence there is possibility of correction of 100 to 150 points (may be intra day).” And  there are chances that crude may bounce from $122/4 to $127 – $131. and it happened ,that’s grace of GOD. Crude is fluctuating from $124 to 127 to 124 to 127 to 124 and so on….. . 3^rd it was told that dow has resistance @11700, just 2 days back and look it has reacted from there like anything. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in June to the lowest level in a decade as tumbling real- estate prices and consumer confidence signalled no end in sight to a housing recession now in its third year. The NAR report “is, unfortunately, not telling us about an end” to the slide, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “Housing is going to be a non-contributor, if not a drag, on the overall economy.” The Labour Department earlier today reported that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest in almost four months, a sign the slowing economy is weakening the labor market. Applications increased by 34,000 to 406,000 in the week ended July 19.  Its mathematics only. Inflation for the first time since May eased by 0.02 per cent to touch 11.89 per cent mainly due to moderation in prices of certain food items like sea fish, tea and imported edible oils. High inflation, which is ruling at 13-year high level, may force the Reserve Bank to further hike short-term lending (repo) rates as well as statutory deposit requirements when it reviews the credit policy on July 29. 11.89% does not indicate cooling of commodities. It indicates only that commodities prices are increasing and increasing @ 11.89%. good news is restricted to only controlling speed of growing % of INFLATION…..

 Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4299.35	4366.45	4452.95	4520.00	4606.50

 

TREND DECIDER OF THE DAY IS :- 4439

SUPPORT : 4282.5 AND 4366.

RESISTANCE :-  4520 AND 4606.

STOP LOSS TO ALL POSITIONAL BUY : 4078.

STOCKS TO WATCH ARE : UNITED PHOS & THERMAX

DENA BANK TREND DECIDER : 47/-

CROMPTON GR TREND DECIDER : 257/-

CANARA BANK TREND DECIDER : 188/-

 

LIFE :-

 

Prayer is neither black magic nor is it form of demand note. Prayer is a relationship—

–John Heuss

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

 

 

 

nifty watch : Hurricane Category 2

Nifty watch:-  24.07.2008

Nifty closed @4476.80(major resistance) for short term and 5 days rsi has reached to 83(means over bought), hence there is possibility of correction of 100 to 150 points (may be intra day).  Although medium term trend has become bullish Lot many shares has given new buy signals (max are either banking stocks, shares of Mr. Anil Dhirubhai , and constructions  ).We recommended sbi ntpc idfc allbk bhel (India’s biggest power-equipment maker)and oil cos. 2 days back( before the results of final match at parliament ) , proved the best among the lot, after shares of anil dhirubhai, sesa goa .  

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4327.05	4401.95	4446.75	4521.60	4566.40

4451 is the trend decider for the day. Resistance levels are 4521-4566 – 4723 – 5166. support levels are 4327 – 4296 – 4183 – 4072. details levels are been given only because market has entered in to new orbit (above 4366). Stop loss to all long positions is 4072 ( 20 days moving average). India’s 10-year bonds advanced on speculation falling oil prices will help slow inflation and ease pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates. Hurricane may be worrisome on issue. After the song of SINGH IS KING, next music is inflationary . song is soothing to economy till the time crude is under control.

 

This may be the 1^st time in history a global recession has been

avoided because of emerging markets. The good side of the rise

in emerging markets is that the world economy is now much

less reliant on just one economy – US:- CHRISTIAN (HSBC)

(Dolly packed sustained winds of 100 miles per hour and was about 30 miles (50 kilometres) east of Brownsville at 10 a.m. local time, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Centre. The storm reached Category 2 status, meaning winds of 96 to 110 mph, the centre said.

Dolly is the season’s first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production. The storm has steered south of most rigs, which are off the East Texas and Louisiana shores.

A hurricane warning stretches for about 300 miles along the U.S. and Mexican coasts, from Corpus Christi, Texas, southward to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. Dolly may make landfall by noon in Brownsville, home to 172,000 people.

“This isn’t going to be a Category 4, so we aren’t that worried,” Jose Luis Monjaras     said. “Still, the flooding could be pretty bad.” source : Bloomberg.)===== but there are chances that crude may bounce from $122/4 to $127 – $131.

Yesterday one of my friend mr. Sahil has predicted expiry of nifty for next 6 months (thanks for contribution). My dear game is for this month only. More and more entries to Predict and Win will make it very interesting.  Good luck to all participants. Total number of comments have crossed 100 mark. Total post till date are app. 64.

New product :-

Bsnl offer landline @ rs.20/- per month

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

singh is king : proved

Whole INDIA (even US President Mr. Bush) is singing only one song :-

 

SINGH IS KING , SINGH IS KING ,

 

SIN……………  , SIN……………. ,

 

MARKET WILL TOUCH 4400 BY ALL MEANS TODAY………

 

N-Deal

 

More foreign participation in insurance pension banking and some more sectors

 

Disinvestment

 

And many more reforms are in pipeline.

ITS FINAL TODAY : SINGH IS KING OR NOT ?

Today is the day of hot exchanges ,

 

arguments ,shero shaeri , horse trading ,

 

standing in favour of own opponents ,

 

proving strength , testing loyalty , biggest

 

wrestling floor , invitation to 4 jailed

 

lawmakers – serving time for murder,

 

kidnapping and arson… – to vote , N-deal or

 

no N-deal ,  ease on foreign investment in

 

insurance , pensions and banking  , nail biting

 

fight , 272 , absentees , whips , rival , 25

 

crores per vote , allegations ,bundle of lies ,

 

bribes , charges , after all its FINAL MATCH.

 

 

Shubh karman ko ab na taru , na daru ab

 

Chahe laru, nishchey kar ke apni jeet karu. 

 

=singh king Manmohan SINGH said =

 

L.K.Advani questioned “this govt. has been

 

reduced to a minority . the upa govt. is like a

 

patient in the ICU , because in ICU ,the 1^st

 

question that’s asked is , will the patient will

 

survive or not.”. Leader of Opposition L K Advani made

 

it clear that the BJP, if voted to power, would

 

not scrap the deal but would renegotiate it.

 

He claimed that after the 1998 Pokhran II

 

tests, Singh, as Leader of the Opposition

 

Rajya Sabha, had been one of its strident

 

critics. Strongly objecting to this, the Prime

 

Minister said he had then stated that “we

 

are all opposed to sanctions and we must

 

prepare our country to face the challenge of

 

sanctions”. In year 1999, BJP led NDA lost

 

just because of 1 single vote. Congress

 

lawmaker said will not leave any stone

 

unturned & will not take any chance.

 

NIFTY WATCH :-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4038.05	4098.75	4133.45	4194.15	4228.80

 

Trend decider for the day is 4132/-

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits.