july 01st

Nifty watch:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
3933.75	3987.10	4075.05	4128.40	4216.35

We are very close to our target of 3977, 2^nd rsi has come down to 20 ( 5 days ) again, means NIFTY is oversold and possibility of short covering is there, one can cover short positions near to above mentioned level. Stop loss to short positions is 4325. NIFTY may touch 4187 or 4257 levels in short covering. Trend decider of the day is 4076. USA first indication of covering. U.S. stocks gained, limiting the market’s worst monthly decline in almost six years, after analysts raised earnings estimates for energy companies and a gauge of business spending topped economists’ forecasts. Crude is also trading in the range of  $144 and $131. today it touched resistance before cooling. “We should expect to get a little bounce here,” John Kattar, the Boston-based chief investment officer at Eastern Investment Advisors, which manages about $2 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “When sentiment gets this one- sided on the negative side, you get good buying opportunities in the market.” . GOLD IS CORRECTING DOWNWARD. Back to Home , The Left parties on Monday said they were now discussing the timing of withdrawing support to the UPA government as they feel it was determined to go ahead with the INDO-US nuclear deal, an indication of which is the Prime Minister’s trip to G-8.The four Left parties are in discussions among themselves on when to withdraw support to the Congress-led coalition and a decision is likely to be taken at their meeting. In net shell market may move both ways today.

 

	High	Low	Close
Last	4163.00	4021.70	4040.55
Weekly	4351.15	4093.20	4136.65
52 week	6388.30	4002.20

 

Do you remember that we were at 6388.3 , just 6 months back and today at 4000. everyone was buyer at that time. Buying momentum,  but not growth. Those who all invested heavily (very high % of savings or used leverages ), I have doubts whether they all were ready to absorb or digest the dents  so always remember NO FASTING NO FEASTING.

 

 

 

Trading calls:-

 

IDBI:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
60.35	62.30	65.65	67.60	70.95

 

BUY FOR SHARP RECOVERY , S.L 60/- TARGET 69 – 71 – 74 – 76

 

 

 

LEARNING LIFE:- 

WHAT IS HAPPINESS, EXCEPT THE SIMPLE HARMONY BETWEEN A MON AND THE LIFE HE LEADS?  - ALBERT CAMUS

PRAYER OF THE DAY

Higher Power! Help me remember that the best harmony comes, when I sing from your book of wisdom.

 

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

nifty watch

last day of june, 2008.

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
3994.25	4065.40	4190.35	4261.50	4386.45

 

we advised last week, to short at higher levels with stop loss of 4378 (CURRENT S.L IS 4325/-) with target of 3978. when we are very close to our target, we have to be watchful at mentioned target, whether it hold good as a support or not. Short positions can be covered once. If break , than next possible long term support is at 3568. if fundamentals start improving (cooling of inflation , crude and cong-left talk on n-deal ), than 3978 can work as a good support. Between above mentioned 2 levels one can consider buying value stocks. Bear markets have always been temporary. So are the bull markets. But one caution is doing not take-leveraged positions. Buy only the way we park our money in banks fix-deposit. None knows that how long the consolidation period will be,( after bears are exhausted. ) total build up in NIFTY 400 PA is more than 30 lac shares, indicates that nifty can test level of below 4000.   trend decider of the day is 4191.

 

Trading calls:-

 

Jet airways:-

 

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
470.25	480.50	495.25	505.50	520.25

 

Sell at rally with s.l of rs.521/- target 480/- and 470/-

 

niit :-

 

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
92.95	100.90	105.45	113.40	117.95

Buy with s.l  105/- target  rs.  113  and 118.

 

Ndtv :-

 

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
396.80	404.60	414.80	422.60	432.80

 Buy with s.l of 402/- target 432.

 

Essar oil :-

 

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
190.20	194.50	201.45	205.80	212.70

Sell with s.l of rs.208/- target   190/- 

 

Chambal fert :-

 

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
70.65	72.70	76.35	78.35	82.00

 

Buy at decline between 70 to 72 with target of 79  and 84/-

 

Learning life :-

 

SERENITY & SATISFACTION COME, NOT WHEN WE ACHIEVE SOME MEASURE OF PRECARIOUS TEMPORARY CONTROL, BUT WHEN WE LEARN TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. THEY COME WHEN WE LEARN THE ART OF RESPONDING TO CHANGE AND ACCOMMODATING THE EVER – SHIFTING CIRCUMSTANCES OF OUR LIVES.

 

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

Only 2 hours left : enjoy socccccccer euro 2008 final

Spain vs Germany

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

EURO-08: SOCCER FINAL : SPAIN VS GERMANY

Euro – 08  FINAL : SPAIN VS GERMANY

—————————————————————————————————–

 

TODAY , after 7 hours , whole world will watch most thrilling action packed grand show game of soccer             .

——————————————————————————————————

 An injury to Germany captain Michael Ballack threatened to rob the Euro 2008 final of one its most exciting players on Saturday, its 2^nd time germans are in final and Ballack is not participating . “Our medical team will be working with him round the clock but we have to think seriously about alternatives,” Germany coach Joachim Loew told a news conference.

Ballack play or not. Its going to be worth watching , biggest flight on this planet irrespective of the outcome.

Good luck to both teams :  SPAIN AND GERMANY

 

OPTIONS (DERIVATIVES)

STOCK INVESTING IS SOCIAL WORK

 

When people are desperately trying to sell, HELP them and BUY.

 

When people are enthusiastically trying to buy, HELP them and SELL.

 

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on

 

 optimism and die on euphoria.”- FRANKLIN TEMPLETON.

 

Only uncertainty is certain: bear markets have always been temporary. So are the bull markets. If a particular industry sector becomes popular with investors, that popularity will prove always temporary and, when lost, may not return for years – FT 

 

LESSON NO.2:   OPTIONS (DERIVATIVES)

 

OPTIONS 

•      It costs nothing to enter into a forward or futures contact, there is a cost to enter into an option contact.(hence understand before entering into any option contract)

•      It should be emphasized that an option gives the holder the right to do something. The holder does not have to exercise this right.

 

Types of Options

•      CALL option: a call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

•      PUT option: a put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

The price in the the contract is known as the exercise

 or strike price, the date is known as expiration date

OPTION Positions

•      There are 2 sides to every option contract.

•      On one side is the investor who has taken the long position(i.e.,has bought the option)

•      On other side is the investor who has taken a short position(i.e.,has sold or written the option).The writer of an option receives cash up front but has potential liabilities later.her profit or loss is the reverse of that of the purchaser of the option.

Types of traders of derivatives

•      Hedgers : use derivatives to reduce or eliminate this risk.

•      Speculators : wish to bet on future movements. They use derivatives to get extra leverage.

•      Arbitrageurs : are in business to take advantage of a discrepancy between prices in two different markets.

Factors affecting OPTION prices

•      The current stock price

•      The strike price

•      The time to expiration

•      The volatility of the stock price

•      The risk free interest rate

•      The dividends expected during the life of the option.

Relationship of all affecting factors

•      The value of call generally increases as the current stock price,the time of expiration,the volatility,and the risk free interest rate increases.The value of the a call decreases as the strike price and expected dividends increase.

•      The value of a put generally increases as the strike price,the time to expiration,the volatility,and the expected dividends increase. The value of put decreases as the current stock price and the risk free interest rate increase.  

Put-Call parity

•             Put-call parity is a relationship between the price, c, of a European call option on a stock and the the price, p, of a European put option on a stock. For a non-dividend paying stock, it is:-

                       -r(T-t)

            c+Xe          = p + s

Trading strategies involving OPTIONS

•      Plain VANILA & Standard options

•      Complex or Nonstandard derivatives or exotic options or just exotics.

In recent  years, banks and other financial institutions have been very imaginative in designing exotics to meet the needs of clients (tailor made)

Covered call & Protective put

Covered call : buying the stock and selling a call option on stock.

Its similar to selling a put option.

Protective put : buying a put option and buying the stock.

Its similar to buying a call option.

SPREADS………………

•      BULL Spread: buying a call (put) with a low strike price and selling a call (put) with a higher strike price.

•      Bear spread: buying a call (put) with a high strike price and selling a call (put) with a low strike price.

Bull/bear spread limits both the investor`s upside potential and her downward risk.

SPREADS……………….

•      BUTTERFLY Spread: buying calls (puts) with a low and high strike price and selling two calls (puts) with some intermediate strike price.

Its appropriate strategy for an investor who feel that large stock price moves are unlikely. It require a small investment initially. Gives rise to small loss if there is a significant stock price move in either direction.   

Spreads……………

•             Calendar spread: can be created by selling a call option with a certain strike price and buying a longer maturity call option with the same strike price.

Its created when direction is not known (arbitrage  position).there can be many types of calendar spread:-

•             Neutral calendar spread

•             Bullish/bearish calendar spread

•             Reverse calendar spread etc………

Spreads……………..

•     Diagonal spread : is a spread which is such that both the expiration date and the strike price of the calls are different.

its combination of  bear, bull and calendar spreads. There are several different types of diagonal spreads.

Combinations…………..

•             A combination is an option trading strategy that involve taking a position in both calls and puts on the same stock. Known as…

•             Straddles

•             Strips

•             Straps

•             Strangles etc………

Straddle

•      Buying a call and put with same strike price and expiration date. Its appropriate when investor is expecting a large move in a stock price but does not know in which direction.

•      A top straddle or straddle write is the reverse position.its created by selling a call and put of same strike price and same expiration. If the stock price on the expiration date is close to strike rate ,it leads to a significant profit.

Strips & Straps

•     A strip consist of a long position in a call and two puts with the same strike price and expiration date.

•     A strap consist of a long position in a put and two calls with the same strike price and expiration date.

Strangle

•      In a strangle ,sometimes called a bottom vertical combination, an investor buy a put and a call with the same expiration date and different strike price.

•      The sale of a strangle is sometimes referred to as a top combination.it can be appropriate for an investor who feels that large stock price moves are unlikely.

A of a to z

•      This presentation has explained just a few of the ways in which options can be used to produce an interesting relationships. Its just A of A TO Z of option strategies.

•      It’s a vast field.most exotic options trade in the otc mkt.,and are designed by financial institutions to meet the requirement of their clients:—————————-

Exotic options

•      Nonstandard American Options

•      Forward Start Options

•      Compound Options

•      Barrier Options

•      Binary Options

•      Lockback Options

•      Asian Options

•      Options to exchange One Asset to Another

•      Options involving Several Assets

Many Ways

•      There are many other ways in which options can be used to produce interesting payoffs. Its not surprising that option trading has steadily increased in popularity and continues to fascinate investors.

friday, 2008 june 27th

Nifty watch:-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4195.45	4255.65	4290.20	4350.40	4384.95

 

For the last 3 days its been advised that don’t short at lower levels. Market is over sold, there is possibility of rally. 2^nd advice was to short at higher levels with stop loss of 4378. market closed at just at 5 days moving average 4315.its just mathematics only. same was mentioned all moving averages are levels in itself. All July futures were at heavy discount showing weakness of the market, advise to sell only to cover at lower levels. Same is reflected at u.s. stocks. They tumbled on outlook for consumer companies and banks 2^nd on earning concerns also of big corporate like GM and CITIgroup. “Most investors are going to sit on the sidelines until they’re more certain the sharks have left the waters and it’s safe to go back in,” said Bruce McCain, the Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank. Goldman cut rating of GM, its earning concern. Back at home,beating the inflation blues is the story of rising millionaires. The India growth story just got better…India has emerged as the home to fastest growing millionaire population. Millionaires in India grew by a record 23,000 in 2007,about 1,23,000 at the end of 2007, up from 100,015 a year ago. Direct tax numbers are up by more than 42% by now. Hope we will be able to maintain the pace.

Trading calls:-

 

 

RPL:-

Fibonacci price projections

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	159	177	188	206	235
Dn	188	170	159	141	112

BUY AT DECLINE with stop loss of 158/- , target : 177 – 188.

Time frame : 3-6 months

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
168.85	171.45	173.10	175.70	177.35

Stop loss is 168/-

 

Yes bank:-

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
125.65	128.50	131.75	134.60	137.85

Short on rally with stop loss of rs.139/- target 125/- and 117/-

Predict and win

One can participate more than once. Every entry will be valid.

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

predict and WIN

Predict the NIFTY clearing ending 2008, july 31^st  by

 

July 30^th 12 noon and

 

win Rs.1000/-

 

Send entries by clicking comment

Best closest predicted entry will get the winning amount  . if there are more than 1 winners, amount will be divided equally. Decision of the management will be final and no participant will have right to challenge it. There is no entry fees.

 

thursday, 2008, june 26th

Nifty watch:-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4032.05	4142.30	4203.45	4313.70	4374.80

Trading strategy: short on intra day rally with s.l of rs.4378/-

Moving averages (simple):

5 D	8 D	13 D	20 D	39 D	50 D	200 D
4312	4421	4454	4548	4795	4840	5235

 

All above mentioned moving averages are levels in itself. Trend will change only

When market will close above 20 days moving average.

 

 

Congress will go ahead with N-deal: Moily

June 25, 2008 23:01 IST

Even as Left parties stuck to their firm opposition to Indo-US nuclear deal, the Congress on  Wednesday struck an aggressive posture, saying it was going ahead with the agreement with the timing of its choice.

“We are going ahead with the deal. That is very clear. And the timing is ours. We will choose our own time,” senior Congress leader Veerappa Moily told NDTV. Impact is very much clear.

Fed funds unchanged at 2.00%:

 

downside risks to growth remains

Fin. Markets are still under stress.

Uncertainty over inflation.

Economic activities are expanding

Oil declines after US inventories climb, 1^st time in six weeks

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

wednesday, 2008 june 25th

NIFTY WATCH

INTRA DAY LEVELS:-

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4067.90	4129.50	4217.70	4279.25	4367.45

 

WE ARE NEAR TO LEVEL OF 3977 (FIBONACCI LEVEL) MENTIONED ON

THIS MONDAY.  4378 (5 days moving avg.) is the stop loss of short positions

Rsi of 5 days is at 15, indicating oversold. We can witness short coverings, but

That will be again opportunity to sell only. Sell at higher levels with s.l of 4385.

Tightening money market, should be the last step to tame inflation. Let’s hope this step

will be proved fruitful, and that too without hitting much to growth process.

 

 

CRR HIKE BY 50 BPS IN 2 STAGES

RBI HIKES REPO RATE BY 50 BPS TO 8.5%

 

=indicated on this Monday itself.

 

 

One  should use technical/charts, to prove wrong that s/he is here to lose only:-

 

1.Support & resistance (pivot)

2.Moving averages 5,20,50,200days

3.RSI

4.Change in volumes

5.Fibonacci price projections etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

tuesday 2008, june 24th

NIFTY WATCH

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4155.35	4210.85	4281.00	4336.50	4406.65

Trading strategy: short on intra day rally only. Do not try to short at lower levels.

5 days rsi stands at 18, which indicates oversold position. Possibility of short

covering is quite high. According to CMIE, inflation is expected to come down to

5.5%, after couple of months in fiscal 2008-9 and the kharif crop is likely to play

a major role in this regard. Low monsoon over east u.p, jharkhand and north

chhatisgarh , but the remnant cyclonic circulation is still capable of sustaining

widespread rains in the area.

 

 

While investing Check macro scene : fundamentals (live hoshpurvak)

 

•             Money inflow/outflow from foreign funds

•             Rising/low corporate profits

•             Low/high interest rates,inflation

•             Political stability or uncertainty

•             global slowdown or growing economy / conflicts / scams /

 

 

MORAL PORTFOLIO:  OF 10 LACS

                                                                                       CURRENT RATE       NIFTY

                                                                                                                        benchmark

INDRAPRASTHA GAS     400 SHARES @ 116/-                                            4266

GTL                                    1000 SHARES @ 42/-

NTPC                                   300 SHARES  @ 160/-

CASH                                    RS.863600/-                         

 

 

Intra day calls:-

 

Dish tv

 

 Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
33.25	34.35	36.10	37.20	38.95

 

Buy at 34/- target  38/-

 

 

Ifci :-

 

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
44.05	45.30	47.40	48.65	50.75

 

 

Buy at 45/- target  50/- and  52/-

 

 

Follow up of calls recommended yesterday:-

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits. 

 

monday 2008-06-23

Week of volatility and lot many events:-

 

1. maya withdrawn support
2. left meet on june 25^th
3. RBI will revisit crr and repo rates
4. inflation above 10%
5. fed meet
6. opec meet
7. Net direct Tax at rs.3,14,468 crores , up by 36.6%
8. cut in std rates
9. interest rates raised
10. saudia would pump an additional 550000 bpd
11. tension between Israel and iran
12. renewed military attacks on nigeria’s oil ind.
13. low volumes at exchanges
14. monsoon 45% above normal: Indian metrological dept.(dna)
15. above all, clearing of current settlement 

 

Fibonacci price projections

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	4482	4987	5299	5804	6621
Dn	5299	4794	4482	3977	3160

 

 

 

as per fibonacci retracement targets would be 4154 and 3977, where short positions can be closed, or otherwise stop loss to all short position should be kept at 4485/- , which was a good support earlier. The nifty 4200 put has accumulated 9.32 lac shares in open positions, which indicates targets below 4200 of nifty in this expiry . Macro scene has totally changed. Only plus point is numbers of direct tax collection which stood ar rs.3,14,468 crores , up 36.6% from 2006-7. for the 2^nd consecutive year, the collections have grown at over 35%. Biggest culprit is oil, which is hovering between range of $ 130 and $ 138. break out to any side will give moment of $9 to 10. Dow is also near to its significant support zone of 11500 and 11600. A penetration of this level will take index to 10700.  

In such a volatile market , one should use options to hedge open positions or straddles should be build to safe guard money from volatility of the market.

 

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
4205.95	4276.70	4404.35	4475.10	4602.75

 

 

 

Short with stop loss of rs.4485/- targets are 4205 and 4154/-

 

 

 

 

 Basic  introduction of options is given below:-

 

 

 

OPTIONS 

•      It costs nothing to enter into a forward or futures contact, there is a cost to enter into an option contact.(hence understand before entering into any option contract)

•      It should be emphasized that an option gives the holder the right to do something. The holder does not have to exercise this right.

 

Types of Options

•      CALL option: a call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

•      PUT option: a put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price.

The price in the the contract is known as the exercise

 or strike price, the date is known as expiration date

OPTION Positions

•      There are 2 sides to every option contract.

•      On one side is the investor who has taken the long position(i.e.,has bought the option)

•      On other side is the investor who has taken a short position(i.e.,has sold or written the option).The writer of an option receives cash up front but has potential liabilities later.her profit or loss is the reverse of that of the purchaser of the option.

Types of traders of derivatives

•      Hedgers : use derivatives to reduce or eliminate this risk.

•      Speculators : wish to bet on future movements. They use derivatives to get extra leverage.

•      Arbitrageurs : are in business to take advantage of a discrepancy between prices in two different markets.

Factors affecting OPTION prices

•      The current stock price

•      The strike price

•      The time to expiration

•      The volatility of the stock price

•      The risk free interest rate

•      The dividends expected during the life of the option.

Relationship of all affecting factors

•      The value of call generally increases as the current stock price,the time of expiration, the volatility, and the risk free interest rate increases.The value of the a call decreases as the strike price and expected dividends increase.

•      The value of a put generally increases as the strike price, the time to expiration, the volatility, and the expected dividends increase. The value of put decreases as the current stock price and the risk free interest rate increase.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio :- we are going to tailor a portfolio of rs.10 lacs just for guidance . nifty will work as bench mark. Today we will invest rs.1.5 lacs equally in 3 different shares:  gtl infra, ntpc and indraprastha gas. => june 23, 2008 <=

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Intra day calls:-

 

 

HERO HONDA :  CMP  758/-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
720.75	739.50	769.75	788.50	818.75

short on intra day rally target 735  -  720.

 

SUZLON   :  CMP  244/-

 

Intraday support & resistance:

S 2	S 1	Pivot	R 1	R 2
232.55	238.10	243.55	249.10	254.55

short on intra day rally target 232 , 220.

 

 

MUTUAL FUND OF THE WEEK:-

                                                                                                 NAV

1.             TATA EQUITY P/E FUND (G)                                 32.5

2.             SBI MAGNUM COMM FUND                                   20.5

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER :- We can’t dictate the market. Its an observation only. May , may not hold good. Much depend on govt. policies ,economic & political scenario. Its more of an informatics’ article only. Presenter /writer is not liable or responsible for any personal or financial losses or profits.